Top 25 Games –
Friday, 24 Boise State @ 13 Michigan State
Very interesting game here as both teams have to replace multiple dynamic skill positions with Kellen Moore and Doug Marin departing Boise and Kirk Cousins and B.J. Cunningham leaving East Lansing. The Spartans do catch a break as they return leading rusher Le’Von Bell, who will be of considerable help to new signal-caller Andrew Maxwell. It’s second-nature by now for Boise State to turn out great quarterbacks and win season-openers (they’re 6-0 under Chris Petersen), but this may be the Broncos toughest season opener to date. As opposed to virtual road games the Broncos have had to start each of the last two seasons, at FedEx vs. Va Tech in ’10 and in Atlanta vs. UGA in ’11, this will be a real road game. In addition, this may be one of the stingiest defenses BSU has faced with the likes of William Gholston, Denicos Allen and Max Bullough. I root for Boise to succeed and they may very well run the table after this one, but it’s tough for any team to lose what Boise lost and face an opponent of this caliber right out of the blocks.
The Pick: Michigan State 33 Boise State 17
Saturday, 8 Michigan v. 2 Alabama, Cowboy Classic/Arlington, Texas
A lot of hype for this Top 10 matchup at JerryWorld (I really should’ve trademarked that) featuring two BCS teams from 2011. The highlighted matchup in this game of course being, the irresistible force (Michigan QB Denard Robinson) versus the immovable object ( the Alabama defense). There is some doubt as to how Nick Saban will be able to replace standout linebackers Dont’a Hightower and Courtney Upshaw, and safety Mark Barron who all went early in the draft. Even dating back to his days at LSU, Saban’s defense is as much about the system as it is the players, a next man up man mentality. Saban has said facing Robinson is the toughest challenge his defense has had since facing Cam Newton in the Iron Bowl two years ago, but really, all he needs to do is look back at the Crimson Tide’s last game for ways to shut down the Michigan QB. I’ll qualify this by saying that Robinson is a far superior thrower, but LSU QB Jordan Jefferson is similar to Robinson in that he was a threat with his legs to do something much more so than throwing the ball. In the BCS National Championship Game, the Crimson Tide’s containment of the running lanes essentially forced Jefferson to throw and well, this happened:
For the Wolverines to get the win, they’ll need just about everything to go right and they’re already behind the 8-ball, with the availability of RB Fitzgerald Toussaint in question due to his pleading guilty to a DUI charge. SEC over B1G in a boatrace, stop me if you’ve heard this one before
The Pick: Alabama 27 Michigan 10
14 Clemson v. Auburn, Chick-Fil-A Kickoff Classic/Atlanta, Georgia
To the surprise of everyone (re: no one), Auburn fell to earth with a QB not named Cam Newton, going 7-5 and a win over Viriginia in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. The offseason wasn’t much better as Michael Dyer’s Wild Ride began and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn (and his completely stable wife) left for Arkansas State. If Gene Chizik isn’t careful, he could end up in the same hot seeat Mack Brown currently occupies (more on him in a moment). Clemson meanwhile is one of the three favorites in the ACC (with FSU and Virginia Tech) and even despite the loss of TE Dwyane Allen to the draft, Clemson brings back two of the best weapons anywhere in QB Taj Boyd and WR Sammy Atkins, which will make them a tough matchup for anyone. Their defense should be improved as they were able to steal Bob Stoops’ long time defensive coordinator Brent Venables away from Oklahoma.
The Pick: Clemson 37 Auburn 20
Marshall @ 11 West Virginia
The Mountaineers are 6-0 all-time in the Friends Of Coal Bowl (11-0 all-time against Marshall) and expect those numbers to climb this year, thanks in large part to pre-season Heisman candidate Geno Smith. Hopefully this year’s edition will not be the marathon 2011’s was.
The Pick: West Virginia 35 Marshall 17
Wyoming @ 15 Texas
Hard to believe it, but there is growing unrest in Austin about how much longer Mack Brown should be Longhorns head coach. Since reaching the 2009 BCS National Championship Game, Texas has gone 13-12 since. Brown is still a great head coach and tremendous recruiter and the Longhorns still get just about whoever they want, so what changed? It’s real simple, the quarterback play has been bleh at best. After 6 years of two of the best QBs in college football history, Vince Young and Colt McCoy, in which they went 69-9, they’ve rotated through Garrett Gilbert, Case McCoy and David Ash. Ash & McCoy have been playing tug of war since Spring 2011 with Ash securing the job midway through last season, going on to win MVP of the Holiday Bowl. This season, Ash enters as the defined #1 starter, despite some Longhorn players feeling the competition was a lot closer. The good news for Texas is that despite all that, they have a phenomenal running game led by sophomore Malcolm Brown and a stingy as usual defense. Ash just has to be good, not great, for Texas to be an upper-echelon team once again.
The Pick: Texas 45 Wyoming 10
ACC/SEC games
Thursday, 9 South Carolina @ Vanderbilt
An SEC matchup kicks off the 2012 season with two teams who have larger than usual expectations. For Vanderbilt, they went 6-7 in James Franklin’s first season as head coach and many feel he can continue to raise the Commodores ceiling, especially seeing as how he. They’re also high on red shirt senior quarterback QB Jordan Rodgers who won the job from Larry Smith last season. If the Commodores can survive the first 6 weeks of the schedule (this game, at Northwestern, at Georgia, at Missouri, home for Florida), they have a chance for 7-8 wins. In Columbia, the Ol Ball Coach and superstar running back Marcus Lattimore have the Gamecocoks dreaming of a potential national championship. When healthy, Lattimore is arguably the best running back in college football. For the first time in what seems like forever, the Gamecocoks have stability at the quarterback position with the Stephen Garcia Experience over and Conor Shaw as the full-time starter. Shaw, if nothing else, was solid, throwing 1,448 yards, 14 TDs and 6 INTs. The challenge will be replacing go-get-it reciver Alshon Jeffry, now a Chicago Bear. A rising defense led by recruting Class of 2011 superstar DE Jadeveon Clowney showed signs of promise last year and will need Clowney to continue to rise as they look to replace Melvin Ingram, another draft pick. The schedule becomes a minefield after September (Georgia, at LSU, at Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, at Clemson), so 2012 could be a feast or famine year for Steve Spurrier.
The Pick: South Carolina 23 Vanderbilt 14
Friday, Tennessee @ North Carolina State
Tennessee appeared to be trending in the right direction coming into this season with most people a believer in Derek Dooley as a head coach, certainity at QB in Tyler Bray and a playmaker wideout Da’Rick Rogers. Make that 2 out of 3 as Rogers was kicked off the team Monday due to a violation of team rules. Meanwhile, in Raleigh, Tom O’Brien let Russell Wilson go to Wisconsin so he could play at Wisconsin and while he got crushed for it, Mike Glennon actually did a serviceable job under center, throwing for 3,054 yards, 31 TD & 12 INTs. The problem was the Wolfpack’s defense didn’t always show up, giving up 30+ points on 5 occasions last year. Regardless, N.C. State will always loom as that team you don’t want to play late in the season if you’re an ACC contender.
The Pick: Tenneessee 31 N.C. State 16
Saturday, Miami (FL) @ Boston College
A major overhaul for the Hurricanes offense with Jacory Harris, Tommy Streeter, Lamar Miller, Ray-Ray Armstrong and others gone. If you’re looking for a breakout candidate on the Miami offense, take sohpomore WR Rashawn Scott. Scott broke his collarbone in mid-October in 2011 but had an outstanding spring and thanks to the departures, has ascended to the top of the depth chart. He has all the physical tools to be a go-to target for now full-time starting QB Stephen Morris. For the Eagles, the challenge of replacing Top-10 pick LB Luke Kuechly begins. The larger problem for them, however, remains their at times inefficient offense. Put the Eagles ceiling at 6 wins
The Pick: Miami 30 BC 13
Murray State @ 7 Florida State
First off, a thank you to Mike for allowing me to put my Seminoles in here, and in return, I will leave out all 1993 mentions (oh, whoops). For the second consecutive year, Florida State enters the season with a Top 10 ranking and expectations from the fan base that Jimbo Fisher returns the program to national prominence (not me personally, but still). Last season had this same narrative until E.J. Manuel went down in the 3rd quarter of a tough home loss to then #1 Oklahoma. With red-shirt freshman Clint Trickett under center, the ‘Noles would compete but ultimately fall short at Clemson and Wake Forest, season over. There is still optimism in Tallahassee with Manuel now fully healthy after playing the Champs Sports Bowl with what turned out to be a broken leg, a loaded backfield with a now healthy Chris Thompson and youngsters Devonta Freeman and James Wilder Jr. Manuel will have plenty of targets to throw to with Champs Sports Bowl MVP Rashad Greene, Kenny Shaw, Christian Green and Willie Haulstead returning from concussion-prevented 2011. A breakout star offensively could be sophomore TE (and grandson of Jack Nicklaus) Nick O’Leary. The defense features one of the best pass rushes in the country with sack-masters Brandon Jenkins and Bjoren Werner and even with the sudden departure of Greg Reid, a tremendous secondary led by Xavier Rhodes and LaMarcus Joyner. A player to watch will be recruiting Class of 2012 leader Mario Edwards Jr. who could bring even more depth to the pass rush. The area of concern will be the offensive line, who between them have 12 combined starts and center Bryan Stork has 10 of them. The hope is that the line will mature throughout the season. Worst-case scenario? See Champs Sports Bowl Highlights. I still feel the Seminoles are a year or two away from being elite once again, so this season boils down to three games: November 24 in Doak Campbell against that team from Gainesville (and hopefully making it a 3-game winning streak against them), and September 22nd at home against Clemson and November 8th at Blacksburg will determine where FSU ends up in the ACC and whether they’ll have a shot at a BCS berth.
The Pick: Florida State 55 Murray State 7
Monday, Georgia Tech @ 16 Virginia Tech
An outstanding early season ACC matchup that could quickly shape the Coast Division race.
Even with Clemson’s recent ascension and Florida State’s potential to the top looming, you still have to pencil in the Hokies as the ACC favorites. For the first time since Michael Vick, Frank Beamer’s team has a legitimate threat at QB in Logan Thomas, who throw for just over 3,000 yards and ran for just under 500 in 2011. He may be asked to do more of that this year as top rusher David Wilson is now a New York Giant. To make up for that loss as well as WR Jarrett Boykin, the Hokies will turn to the Pistol offense this season to highlight Thomas more. But Hokie fans need not worry, the defense is tough as usual thanks to a unit that returns 8 starters from 2011 that was near the top in most ACC (and a few national) statistical categories .Paul Johnson’s triple-option Yellow Jackets will provide quite the season-opening test thanks to a typically potent running attack led by QB Tevin Washington, who ran for over 1,100 yards last season . It will be a brand new backfield for the Ramblin Wreck as there as nary a true junior on the roster. The top player for Georgia Tech on the defensive side will be junior safety Isaiah Johnson, who had 78 tackles and 3 picks last season.
On a neutral site, this game could go either way, but Lane Stadium wll be in mid-season form for this one.
The Pick: Va Tech 27 Georgia Tech 20
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